The Doctor Oak's a Genius Thread

[Doctor Oak]

With Summer 2005 coming up, I think it's a good time to review the 'Future of Pokemon' article I wrote last September. Just to boost my ego further. ^^

I get one point for a dead on prediction and for very close predictions.
I get a half point for a sort of right prediction, IE same idea but wrong method etc.
I get nil for a completely wrong prediction, one that never happened.

First point mentioned is thus:

As far as Generation 4 goes, my estimates place it at a 2005 December or early 2006 release date in Japan. This can be deduced from a number of things

So far, though not 100% confirmed, it's 99% confirmed that we'll be seeing Diamond and Pearl in November this year. 1 point

My money is going on the next Pokemon games being on the DS.

Bingo. Amazing how many people forgot after the Seattle Conference (and the Japanese one in the same morning) that they'd contested it couldn't possibly be on the DS. 1 point

The Anime needs to go from Hoenn to the new land. Or will require a filler of sorts. In Japan, Ash currently stands with only needing two badges. Effectively, the series could be over by September 2005, leaving room for a filler. The filler couldn't possibly drag on for more than a few months and so we're talking Quarter 1 2006 as the latest date for Generation 4 to be released.

Half point It looks like the series will be ready to end by July/August instead (With a two week break from June 2 for Baseball), giving about 4 months for a filler series.

Due to the Japanese not having the same style of Consumer Christmas Period that we do, it is unlikely that the games WILL be available before Christmas, but rather just after it where sales are higher. Really, considering it's Pokemon they could start selling it on any date and people would still buy it in their thousands - as proved by the late November releases of Colosseum and Ruby/Sapphire over the last two years - but i'd say they're more likely to hold back a few weeks and release it in January than December.

Half-Point Instead of releasing it in December or January, they're looking to do it in November. November avoids the problem mentioned in this extract of having to push it back a month.

There will be ONE Pokemon Game for the DS, that is for sure. In fact, it's most likely a launch title too

Pokemon Dash was a launch title in Japan and Europe. Win. 1 Point

The Pikachu Demo shown off at E3 for the DS is said to have been expanded into a proper Virtual Pikachu Pet game.

Ahh, How I remember seeing that news as one of the last on Pallet before it died. The full virtual Pikachu game never game but it as incorperated into Dash, probably a sensible move. Half-point.

I'd say it's highly likely, however, that we will see at least one new spin-off game developed and released next year. Possibly by Genius Sonority instead of the main Gamefreak devision, but whoever makes it, we probably should expect something.

Enter the game with the stupid name, ladies and gentlemen: XD! Point me. 1 Point

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Now, onto the calandar.

This year (2004)

* Pikachu DS.
* Possibly one 4th Generation Pokemon before the end of the year. Most likely starring in a post-card alongside Gonbe or something.
* News of possible Emerald Release date for USA.

-Pokemon Dash. - Half Point
-No new Gen 4 in 2004 - No Points
-There was no news of Emerald's USA Release date until the start of this year. No Points

Start of 2005

* One or more 4th Generation Pokemon released on Pokemon of Japan website.
* Confirmation of Emerald Release date in USA.
* DS released in Europe/Australia, possibly with Pikachu DS.

- Lucario appeared in March, though not on the official Pokemon of Japan site but rather Coro Coro and the Movie Site. Half-point
- Yup, Though they did change the date later to push it back, there was confirmation of an American Emerald Release. 1 Point
- Australia beat Europe by a month... for unknown reasons and Europe got it on March 11th - with Pokemon Dash as a launch title. Since i've already taken a point off for Pikachu DS being Dash instead, i'm going to just leave this as 1 point

Late Spring/Early Summer 2005

* At least one new Pokemon seen in preview for Movie 8.
* The method to get Celebi is announced.
* First screenshots of Generation 4 released through Coro Coro
* Gonbe receives an English name through the release of Movie Seven.
* Emerald either released at the end of this period

- 3, Manene, Manyula and Usohachi. 1 Point
- Haha, this looks like wishful thinking. Celebi's still unobtainable to the west - No Points
- Not yet, May the 14th is the last Coro Coro to fit into this timeslot - it WILL have news on a new Pokemon Game but what we see will remain to be seen. No judgement yet.
- It's huge popularity (mostly forced upon us) and it's appearence in Dash led to the name Munchlax appearing much, much earlier. No Points
- Was released in America 8 days ago. 1 Point

And one final point that we can look at set within Summer-Halloween:

By this period any news on a new spin-off game will have been around for a month or two and could be ready for release for Halloween.

- XD hits E3 in 9 days and a late summer/early autumn release is extremely likely.

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So, in total that gives me 10.5 Points out of a maximum 19. Not bad, eh? ^^

Hopefully by 2006 I can get more accurate hits to get it closer to the top.

 

[Linkachu]

While other people could've done similar predictions and been more correct, you still got some points down pat. Niiiice. Too bad NA didn't get Dash at Launch. We suxx0r

I've just been wondering one thing, though. Does Pokemon in Japan ever take a seasonal break like shows in America do? (As in an extended break of 2 to 3 months?)

D/P in November means lots and lots of new info in the coming months. Can't freakin' wait

 

[Doctor Oak]

I've just been wondering one thing, though. Does Pokemon in Japan ever take a seasonal break like shows in America do? (As in an extended break of 2 to 3 months?)

No.

 

[Anonymous]

Cool